BP’s Energy Outlook 2030, released January 18, 2012, predicts growth in renewables will outpace all other energy sources over the next 20 years.The petroleum company forecasts that energy demand is likely to grow by almost 40 percent by 2030 thanks to economic and population growth in non-OECD countries. Meanwhile, consumption in OECD countries will increase by just four percent over the same period.
The report predicts that fossil fuels will provide 81 percent of world energy demand, six percent lower than today. By 2030, renewables will supply 11 percent of global electricity. BP says the EU will be at the head of the pack, with 26 percent of energy coming from renewables.
Credit: BP Energy Outlook 2030
This growth in renewable use will be because of greater “fuel-switching,” that is, replacing coal and oil. Such switching will result in an annual growth rate of renewables at eight percent annually, faster than any other fuel source.
“The main message is that we need to have an open, competitive energy sector, which encourages innovation and thereby maximises efficiency in order to enjoy energy that is sufficient, secure and sustainable into the future,” said Bob Dudley, BP cheif executive.
The report also predicts that North America will turn it’s current energy deficit into a small surplus by 2030, thanks to an increased supply of biofuels and unconventional oil and gas.
This report, with it’s positive outlook for the future of renewables, comes less than a month after BP decided to shut down it’s solar arm.